The government will adopt a loose policy of "4trillion" and will not make a comeback.
the government will adopt a loose policy of "4trillion" and will not make a static arc: it will make a comeback.
China Construction Machinery Information
Guide: the 2014 second quarter economic and financial outlook report released by the Bank of China on March 27 pointed out that the real estate market may further cool down in the second quarter due to the continuous fermentation of the tight real estate credit policy. The Bank of China pointed out in the report that under the differentiated credit policy, individuals get housing loans
the economic and financial outlook report for the second quarter of 2014 issued by Bank of China on March 27 pointed out that due to the continuous fermentation of tight real estate credit policies, the real estate market may further cool down in the second quarter
Bank of China pointed out in the report that under the differentiated credit policy, it will be more difficult for individuals to obtain housing loans, real estate sales will continue to slow down, and the range of house price decline and the number of cities in the third tier cities will further increase. However, under the effect of the new "classified guidance" regulation policy, the regional imbalance between supply and demand is expected to be alleviated, the credit support of the banking industry for first-time home purchase, affordable housing and other fields will remain stable, and there is little possibility of a sharp reversal in the real estate market
the recently released economic data is relatively weak, and the real estate market has cooled down slightly. Investment banks such as Nomura expect that under this background, the regulators will adopt loose policies
Nomura said, "we think the Chinese government will relax monetary and fiscal policies at the same time in the second quarter. If there is no easing policy, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the second and third quarters will fall below 7% more than 50%." There are three possible policy tools
according to the report, The policy may be relaxed in three aspects in the future: "In terms of monetary policy, we believe that the central bank needs a clearer easing signal. It is expected that the deposit reserve ratio will be reduced by 0.5 in the second quarter and the third quarter respectively, which also increases the possibility of interest rate reduction and increases the credit supply; in terms of fiscal policy, it is expected that fiscal payments will increase, and the central government's monthly actual fiscal deficit may expand; in the real estate market, the policy will also be relaxed. The central government has decided to give local governments the basis for The local government may adopt loose policies in order to promote the prosperity of the real estate market. "
Nomura believes that the prospect of the real estate industry is very critical. "If the slowdown of the real estate industry in 2014 is small, the easing policy will be more effective for the steady economic growth. If the slowdown of the real estate industry is large, China will face greater challenges in maintaining steady economic growth."
however, Nomura pointed out that this policy will be different from the previous 4trillion, "Different from the 4trillion yuan fiscal stimulus policy in 2008, this round of easing policy is more subtle. As it may re stimulate shadow banking financing, real estate and hot money inflows, policymakers do not want the outside world to think it is a large-scale easing. We believe that this round of easing is similar to the second half of 2013. The government did not announce a large-scale stimulus plan, but the total amount of social financing increased. The government's goal is not to build a V-shaped recovery, but Maintain a steady growth of 7%-7.5% and create 10million jobs. "
HSBC also needs to conduct regular inspection in recent reports; "Recent economic data have prompted China to prepare to speed up investment and construction projects, but the possible policy measures will not be a replica of the fiscal stimulus policy in 2008," it said
while fixed income investment related stocks may receive dividends, HSBC believes that the second beneficiary of the acceleration of investment projects may be the construction machinery sector, "The only risk is that HSBC believes that real estate developers may respond faster in the decline cycle, temporarily shelving construction projects with a short lead time, rather than having a lead time of 6 to 9 months before the commencement of new projects as in the rise cycle, and then the transaction volume will achieve positive growth"
loose policies may stimulate shadow banking financing, but UBS analysts believe that there is no need to worry too much about shadow banking. They believe that China's "shadow banking system is far smaller than its overall financial system in terms of scale". She believes that by the end of 2013, China's shadow banking system accounted for about 50% to 70% of the total GDP; According to the data released by the financial stability board, the global average of this proportion was 117% by the end of 2012, and 170% in the United States
Wang Tao believes that although China's shadow banking system is growing rapidly, its scale can still be controlled. This is because "China's shadow banking system lacks leverage, securitization and mark to market mechanisms"